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November 21, 2002 The Paine of Measurement Dialed into Democracy? The November Elections may have sounded the death knell for more than just a few political careers. It was probably also the end of many marketing and polling techniques as we know them. The dismal performance of pollsters, the millions wasted on ineffectual ad programs, and the endless barrage of annoying telemarketing calls, all point to a desperate need to revamp a system that clearly isn’t working. So many people were taken by surprise by the final results. How, they asked, could the pollsters have been so wrong? Get used to it. Polling and surveying is becoming increasingly unreliable because of the growing difficulty of obtaining a valid sample. Nowadays, if you are random digit dialing during the day, chances are the only actual voters you’ll reach directly are those without an answering machine... or caller id... or blocking mechanisms... or a cell phone... or a job outside their home. This would hardly be a representative sample of the population. Just as the 2000 election caused the overhaul of Voter News Service, the 2002 election will require the overhaul of the polling system. Ironically, the technology is there to get accurate data. During the 1996 election, panels of viewers were set up to provide feedback on the debates. They were asked to give their reaction to statements made in real time, and we could all see the results on our television screens. Granted, the panels are expensive and cumbersome, and it’s oh-so-much easier to hire those college students, but my prediction is that, for the sake of accuracy, panel systems will play a much greater role in future elections. Another major failure in this year’s election process was the advertising. The amount of money candidates spent in my little state of New Hampshire would have paid a year’s college tuition for most of our high school students. Oh, would that they could have chosen that as an option! Instead, both sides put up a series of incredibly vicious ads that informed no one and misinformed many. Reprehensible tactics included not just factual distortion, but visual distortion: one ad digitally added 50 pounds to a female candidate. Sadly, the candidate lost, and one could conclude that the ads were therefore successful. But at what price? If people stayed home rather than participating in the voting process, and if good candidates are in future deterred from running—because let’s face it, who wants to deal with that kind of attack—can we really call that success? Finally, let’s talk again about those phone calls. Most of my friends in New Hampshire received about ten a day during the last week of the campaign. Sure, they are a cheap technique to reach a great many people. But when they interrupt family life and tie up emergency lines, they become expensive in ways not easily measurable, but very important. At first the pleasant voice of the governor on an answering machine is somewhat flattering, but after the fifth or tenth call, it is annoying in the extreme. So what will be the outreach technique of the future? Just as corporations have realized that the best way to sell product is to build a relationship with their consumers, my hope is that campaigns will realize that the best way to get people to vote for their candidates is to establish relationships and credibility. That means listening to their constituencies, speaking out on issues in the media and actually doing something to fix a problem, not just talking about it. Okay, now I’ll get off my soap box,
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